Why a New System?

Our current system encourages candidates to appeal to the largest block of voters in their own party during the primary election. Then candidates usually (not always!) moderate their messaging to gain enough votes from independents and members of the opposing party to win the general election.

The results often are not pretty, especially if a third-party “spoiler” candidate takes enough votes away from the most popular candidate to tip the election in favor of the leading rival. The difficulty for minority and third-party candidates (actually any candidate not extremely well-funded) to get serious attention also adds to the search for a fairer way to conduct elections. Among the alternatives we’ll look at here are the leader, Ranked Choice Voting (RCV), and Approval Voting, a simpler version of RCV.

Ranked Choice Voting is enjoying rapidly growing support, and many state and local governments¹ have already adopted RCV. Leading proponents include FairVote², Cal RCV³ and the League of Women Voters. Opponents include Keep Voting Simple⁴ and the Foundation for Government Accountability,^5,6 a conservative think tank.

How it Works

To refresh on how RCV works, watch supporter Robert Reich’s entertaining video on YouTube explaining RCV using pets⁷ or the short video by Democracy Rising.⁸ On the other hand, Keep Voting Simple’s video⁹  shows how Instant Runoff or RCV can lead to undesirable results.  It’s worth reading an editorial¹⁰ opposing RCV in a 2020 Massachusetts election for the real-world examples. Ballotpedia offers a very thorough explanation at Ranked Choice Voting.¹¹  

Briefly, each voter ranks all the candidates for an office from most favorite to least. If one candidate receives 50% + 1 votes, they win. If no one wins, there’s an instant run-off (round 2). The candidate with the least votes gets eliminated but the rest of the votes of their supporters (people who ranked that candidate #1) get applied to the other candidates as before. Rounds continue until one candidate wins.

A ballot becomes “exhausted” when none of the votes are for a remaining candidate. How skipped votes are handled (either ignored or the other candidates are moved up a rank) is determined by the applicable election rules.

Pros & Cons from the Sources Above

PRO	CON
“Instant runoff” format saves time & money.	It’s new and more complicated which can discourage voters from voting, especially voters with less voting experience.
Avoids the big drop-off in voter participation in run-offs	Requires educating voters on how it works. Some report voting was easy but later were confused by the election results.
Allows voters to express varying degrees of support for more than one candidate.	Ranking candidates requires more time to make informed choices.
Winner receives the majority of votes.	First round leaders can lose to a much less popular candidate.
Discourages negative campaigning in order to acquire the second choices from opponents’ supporters.	Candidates can form alliances to encourage voters to give them all high rankings despite varying qualifications.
RCV tends to help minority candidates get elected.	It requires changing the tabulation process. Counting by hand is error-prone; rewriting computer software is expensive.
Finds most popular candidate in a multi-party or large pool of candidates.	Delayed results and complexity (“ballot exhaustion, etc.) add to already existing fears of election manipulation.

Examples of Success and Failure

Oakland Mayor, CA November 8, 2022¹² 

• 10 candidates first round leaders got 33% (Taylor) and 31% (Thao).
• In 9^th round, Thao (50.3%) wins over Taylor (40.7%).
• 11K total ballots, 8K non-transferable (blanks & overcounted).

Oakland School Board District 4 race RCV December 2022¹³

• 3^rd place candidate, Mike Hutchinson, awarded win after a recount weeks later.
• California Ranked Choice Voting Coalition found the error after studying the public “cast vote record.”¹⁴
• Human error misconfigured RCV software options:
  • Ballot with no #1 choice was processed as-is (a default setting used elsewhere).
  • Alameda process is to move #2 choice up into first place, etc.

Results and Analysis from Alaska’s First RCV Election¹⁵  

Three candidates competed for the US House seat in a Special Election, August 2022.

• 1^st round, Mary Peltota (40.2%) had 9-point lead over Sarah Palin (31.3%) and Nick Begich (28.5%) was eliminated
• 2nd round, Mary Peltota (51.5%) defeated Sarah Palin (48.5%).
• “85% of Alaskans said ranking is simple and 95% said they received instructions on how to complete their ranked choice ballot”
• 99.8% of ballots were valid

A What-if Analysis of the Alaska Election.¹⁶

David McCune and Adam Graham-Squire, mathematics professors from the Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State identified several of RCV’s “less desirable features:”

• “it is possible that a candidate can be hurt by receiving more support from voters.”
• “RCV is susceptible to the so-called “spoiler effect…”
• “it is possible to have a set of voters that cause their least favorite candidate to win by ranking their favorite candidate in first place.”

 

The authors examined 182 RCV elections and concluded these issues are rare, but possible. However, in 95 of 182 elections the winner did not receive votes from the majority of all voters. Why not?  Because “the eventual winner is only guaranteed to win a majority of the remaining votes, after eliminating other candidates.”

They explain, “In the Alaska election, a true majority does not occur in the final round of vote counting, as Peltola earns a victory with 91,277 votes, far short of a majority of the approximately 189,000 voters who cast a ballot in the election. The reason she does not obtain a true majority is that when Begich is eliminated, the 11,262 ballots which only rank him are removed from the election and are not transferred to Palin or Peltola.” The authors acknowledge this problem “will improve if voters decide to rank more candidates in RCV elections.” This example also helps to explain why some RCV voters found voting easy but the election results confusing.

APPROVAL VOTING – a Simpler Alternative to Ranked Choice

Ballotpedia defines approval voting as “an electoral system in which voters may vote for any number of candidates they choose. The candidate receiving the most votes wins. Approval voting may be used in single-winner systems and multi-winner systems.” ¹⁷

The leading proponent of approval voting is Election Science.org.¹⁸  Their basic argument is that approval voting offers the benefits of RCV, but without the complexity. Few cities today use approval voting, so there’s not enough data to evaluate the system thoroughly yet.

FairVote.org, on the other hand, argues that RCV is a better system than approval voting. ¹⁹    Why?

• Votes for a backup choice can harm your first choice in approval voting.
  • A vote for the second choice counts as much as the first.
• Approval voting rewards strategic voters and campaigns.
  • Savvy voters know which “acceptable” candidates pose the biggest threat to their top choice and use “bullet votes” to vote only for their favorite.
  • Under RCV, voting for second or third choices only counts if the voter’s favorite loses.
• Approval Voting is less expressive and more subjective than RCV.
  • Voters must choose “yes or no” rather than level of support for candidates.
• Approval voting does not always elect candidates with broad support.
  • RCV requires winners to have lots of first choice votes.
• Data shows RCV improves representation for women and people of color.
  • RCV is on solid legal ground – upheld in several courts.

In 2020, Seattle voters were asked to choose between RCV and Approval Voting.²¹ RCV won, but it won’t be ready for implementation until 2027.²²

Sources:

1. Ranked Choice Voting, Ballotpedia, the Encyclopedia of American Politics
2. FairVote
3. A Better Way to Vote: Ranked Choice Voting,  Cal RCV
4. Keep Voting Simple: No to Ranked Choice Voting  Keep Voting Simple
5. The Foundation for Government Accountability
6. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundation_for_Government_Accountability
7. Ranked Choice Voting Explained — with Cute Pets, Robert Reich, YouTube
8. What is ranked choice voting? (1.0), Democracy Rising, YouTube
9. What You Should Know About Instant Runoff Voting, SJVoter, Youtube
10. Keep voting simple; say no to Question 2, Cheryl Longtin, Cape Cod Times opinion section, Oct. 13, 2020
11. Ranked Choice Voting Ballotpedia, the Encyclopedia of American Politics
12. General Election (Certified Final Results) – November 08, 2022, Mayor – Oakland (RCV), Official Election Site of Alameda
13. Alameda Co. finds error in ranked-choice voting system, investigating Oakland school board race, ABC7 News, Dec. 29, 2022
14. Error in ballot counting in Alameda Co. changes outcome in Oakland school board race, ABC7 News, December 29, 2022
15. Results and Analysis from Alaska’s First RCV Election, FairVote, August 31, 2022
16. Mathematical Flaws in Ranked Choice Voting Are Rare but Real PROMARKET, Stigler Center at the U. of Chicago Booth School of Business, May 3, 2023
17. Approval voting, Ballotpedia
18. Approval Voting bridges America’s divide Center for Election Science
19. Ranked Choice Voting vs. Approval Voting, FairVote
20. Approval vs. ranked-choice voting: What’s the difference?, Crosscut
21. Why Seattle city races won’t use ranked choice voting this year, though voters said yes to it last fall, West Seattle Blog, January 19, 2023
22. Will ranked choice voting come to Santa Clara County?, San Jose Spotlight, May 19, 2023